ZEW/Prognos Survey on Transport Markets - Increased Transport Volumes Primarily Expected in the Road Freight Sector

Developments in German transport markets have left little room for price increases in the coming six months. Particularly in road freight, a downward price trend is to be expected. Things are much more varied, however, when it comes to transport volumes. While experts forecast increases in transport volumes for road freight and courier, express and package services (CEP) in Germany in the next six months, volumes are expected to stagnate for rail freight and inland shipping. The outlook for air freight, which up to now has been rather positive, has also worsened. A special survey regarding the GDL train drivers' strike indicates that the strike has not only cost Deutsche Bahn market shares, but that the company has also suffered damage to its image. These are the key findings of the Prognos/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) carried out in the third quarter of 2015. In this quarterly survey, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) survey some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their expectations for the development of transport volumes and prices on a six-month horizon.

The experts surveyed see no room for price increases in almost all of the transport markets considered. They consider steady or falling prices to be much more likely. When it comes to air freight, experts' expectations seem to have been significantly influenced by the negative headlines from China. Ten per cent of the survey participants, more than ever before, even expect significant price decreases in the Asia-Pacific market.

Estimations regarding the development of transport volumes in the coming six months vary. The biggest winner is long-distance road freight in Germany,while the expectations for other markets (inland freight, long-distance freight between Germany and Western and Eastern Europe) are characterised by a limited degree of optimism. Transport volumes in CEP markets have once again started to expand. In contrast, expectations for changes in transport volumes in rail freight and inland shipping show little variation in comparison to the previous quarter. This is also true for combined traffic.

The sentiment indicator for air freight shows a downward trend. This is the case not only for the Asia-Pacific market, which was particularly affected by the bad business news from China, but also for Europe and North America. The sentiment indicator for sea freight volumes in Europe, by contrast, is showing a significant upward trend. Around 40 per cent of the experts surveyed expect to see increased transport volumes.

The special survey concerning the extended rail strike has shown that experts expect the strike to have long-term impacts. Alongside the short- or even long-term loss of customers to other carriers, particularly to lorry firms, the rail network has suffered an overall loss of customer confidence.

The Prognos/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) have surveyed some 250 experts from the transport sector on a quarterly basis about the development of transport markets. The experts are asked to provide a prognosis for changes in transport volumes and transport prices in the coming six months. The survey examines national and international transport between Germany and Western and Eastern Europe, with regard to the following transport sectors: road freight, rail freight, inland shipping, combined traffic, courier, express and package services. Moreover, experts assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia-Pacific region.

For more information please contact

Dr. Martin Kesternich (ZEW), Phone +49 621 /1235-337, E-mail kesternich@zew.de

Hans-Paul Kienzler (Prognos AG), Phone +41 61 /3273 476, E-mail Hans-Paul.Kienzler@prognos.com