ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Among Transport Market Experts – Decrease In Speed Of Recovery And Growth In Freight Traffic

Traffic volume will continue to rise until mid-2011, albeit less than in the two previous quarters. The continuing growth of freight will nevertheless lead to price increases in almost all transport segments in the next six months. These are the core results of the Transport Market Barometer by ProgTrans/ZEW (ZEW/ProgTrans Transportmarktbarometer) in the fourth quarter of 2010. ProgTrans AG, Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim ask transport market experts about their assessment of the development of transport markets and prices for the next six months.

The experts’ assessment concerning the transport volume in the following six months indicates that the catch-up effects of the economic crisis are about to dampen. Expectations for the individual transport sector and relations differ immensely. Growth of transport volume in road freight will remain stable at a high level and will even slightly increase in courier, express and package services (CEP), air freight as well as sea freight– the latter from a lower level –, whereas the traditional rail cargo and combined transport will face a slight decrease. The experts’ assessments vary concerning the individual transport relations, but intercontinental transport remains the driving force for growth.

The experts’ estimations concerning price trends in the next six months mainly indicate an increase in prices. An increase is expected in road freight as well as in air and sea freight, although this increase will be slower in sea freight. The experts predict a moderate price increase in rail cargo, combined transport and the CEP services. Domestic shipping rates show only a weak increasing trend. The decreasing estimations of increasing prices in Eastern European rail cargo (both traditional and combined) are especially remarkable.

For further information please contact

Martin Achtnicht, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-208, E-mail: achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com