ZEW/ProgTrans Survey among Transport Market Experts - Expectations for the Transport Sector Improve Again

A moderate increase of freight transportation prices in Germany can be expected in the six months to come. At the same time, freight volumes indicate a slight increase of demand in most transport sectors. The majority of experts, however, expect a stronger increase in prices than in volumes and regard fuel prices as the major cost drivers. High prices for fuel are apparently passed along to customers. These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW TransportBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the second quarter of 2012.

In this survey, ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) interview some 250 managers from the transport and loading industry on a quarterly basis about their assessment regarding the development of the transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.

According to the surveyed experts, transport volumes will develop well, despite uncertainties concerning general cyclical trends of the economy. The "Sentiment Index" for freight volumes  indicates predominantly positive growth expectations and has increased compared to the previous quarter. However, expectations for individual transport sectors vary widely: in road transport, in courier, express, and package services (CEP), as well as in intermodal transport, the growth of volumes slightly increases. In air and maritime freight, even strongly increasing transport volumes are expected. Compared to that, the outlooks for rail cargo as well as for domestic shipping are rather poor.

The majority of experts forecast an increase in transport prices for the six months to come, especially for rail cargo, CEP services, as well as for air and maritime freight. Stable prices are expected for domestic shipping. Concerning transport routes, a strong price increase is especially expected for the Asia/Pacific route.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-216, E-mail hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com