ZEW/ProgTrans Survey among Transport Market Experts – Increasing Freight Costs Expected

German rail and road freight, intercontinental air freight to Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region as well as courier, express and parcel services (CEP) will have to face price increases by the coming six months. These are the findings of the current ZEW/ProgTrans Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the third quarter of 2007. ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, surveyed around 300 transport market experts on their assessment of the development of transport markets and prices for the next six months.

The interviewed experts assess the extent and trend of the price development in each transport sector and traffic relation differently. This is due to the fact that certain transport sectors are more affected by cost factors such as diesel prices, labour costs or special charges than others. After all, the diesel prices currently are at a nominal record high. In terms of labour costs in rail and road freight, a debate is underway concerning the extent of the increase as well as the question who should bear the growing costs. Air freight is confronted with kerosene surcharges again whereas from August  1st until November 15th, 2007, sea traffic with the Far East faces the Peak Season Surcharge, an additional fee in times of high freight volumes.

The experts’ assessment of the development of transport volume for the coming six months testifies to a certain uncertainty about the further economic and foreign trade development, the key factors determining transport demand. For the road and rail freight, experts estimate a slight volume growth in domestic and Western Europe traffic compared to the previous quarter. Still, the announced strikes at Deutsche Bahn AG may have influenced the assessment of the rail freight situation. Especially for international CEP consignments as well as for Asian-Pacific-related air and sea freight, however, a substantial growth in volume is expected. The prospects of inland navigation are viewed as being more favourable than in previous surveys, the outlook on combined traffic rather restrained.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41 61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Victoria Alexeeva-Talebi (ZEW), E-mail: alexeeva-talebi@zew.de

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer

Since 1998, ProgTrans, Basle, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, conduct a quarterly survey among 300 executive decision makers from the transport and haulage industry regarding the developments on the transport market. The experts are asked for their assessment six months in advance concerning whether transport volumes and prices in Germany as well as for east and westbound European international transport are to (strongly/slightly) increase, (strongly/slightly) decrease, or remain unchanged. The examined transport markets are road haulage, railway goods traffic, inland navigation, air freight, combined transport, and courier, express, and parcel services. Moreover, the experts provide an assessment of the developments of air and sea freight from Germany to other European states as well as to the North American and Asia/Pacific regions.