ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Among Transport Market Experts - Increasing Transport Volume and Prices Expected For Next Six Months

In the next six months, an increase in transport volume and prices is expected for the German transport market. This is the finding of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarkt Barometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the second quarter of 2010. ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey about 300 transport market experts every three months to assess the development on the transport markets.

Two factors considerably influence the development of increasing transport prices. On the one hand, the consolidating development of transport volume caused an increase in prices on most markets. On the other hand, a further increase in fuel prices can be observed. However, the experts assess the development of prices in the next six months differently in the individual transport sectors. The experts mostly expect an increase in prices for road freight, air freight and especially ocean shipping. Logistics services and rail cargo are both expected to have stable or slightly increasing prices. Domestic shipping is expected to have slightly increasing prices. In comparison: The experts expect stable prices for local road freight and domestic logistic services, whereas the highest increase in prices is expected for intercontinental air freight and ocean shipping.

Since late summer 2009, the experts’ opinion indicated by the Transport Market Barometer is continuing. The experts expect that the decline in demand on the transport markets caused by the economic crisis will be mostly overcome in 2010. However, the assessment of the development of transport volume in the individual transport sectors and relations still varies. Expectations for air freight and ocean shipping are the most optimistic. They are also rather good for road freight, logistic services and combined traffic. Expectations are more moderate for the “traditional” rail cargo, and even a bit more pessimistic for domestic shipping. Regarding the individual transport relations, the highest increases in transport can be seen for international transports, in particular to the Asia/Pacific region.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-216, E-mail: hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41 61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

The ProgTrans/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a trimestrial survey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to assess the coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. It comprises the following sections within the national and transnational transport to Western and Eastern Europe: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.