ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Among Transport Market Experts: Irregular Price Development due to Increasing HGV Toll and Decreasing Petrol Prices

The German transport sector has to face a considerably lower transport volume in the next six months. In general, however, lower transport prices are not expected. Experts rather await that the price development differs greatly for the various transport sectors and relations. A reason for this is that currently several influencing quantities overlap. For instance, the increase in HGV toll at the beginning of 2009 is confronted with decreasing petrol prices and an increasing competition due to a decrease in demand. These are the findings of the latest ZEW/ProgTrans transport market barometer, which is conducted every three months by ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, and surveys 300 transport market experts.

In the November 2008 survey, the experts’ expectations regarding the transport volume in the next six months are mainly pessimistic. In comparison to the third quarter of 2008, the future development of air and sea freight is assessed moderately after the booming development. The experts are particularly pessimistic with regard to transport to North America. The experts’ outlooks regarding the demand for transport in traditional rail cargo, domestic shipping and road traffic are not very optimistic. In contrast, the experts view is not as pessimistic for the combined transport and especially in the courier-, express, and parcel (CEP) services. With regard to the individual transport relations, Eastern European transport is expected to do well for overland shipping, and the Asia/Pacific transports for air and sea freight.

In comparison to the previous quarter, the experts retract their expectations regarding price developments. However, the price development for the individual transport carriers and relations is expected to differ greatly. A possible explanation for this is that the essential cost influencing variables are developing in different directions: The HGV toll is considerably increasing by 1 January 2009, the petrol prices are declining after a high in summer, and the stagnating or decreasing demand is facing very different competitive situations.

Against this background, experts expect that prices will be mostly stable in domestic shipping and CEP services, and a declining tendency for prices in air and sea freight. The highest increase in prices is expected for road traffic and rail cargo. With regard to the individual transport relations, the expected increase in prices is higher for rail cargo, road traffic as well as domestic shipping than for cross-border transport. For air and sea freight, decreasing prices are expected for intercontinental transport rather than inter-European traffic.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone: +49/621/1235-216, E-mail: hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (ProgTrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

The ZEW/ProgTrans Transport Market Barometer

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted survey among 300 transport market experts in Germany every three months concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to assess the situation in the next six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. It comprises the following sections within the national and transnational transport to Western and Eastern Europe: road freight, rail freight, domestic shipping, combined transport as well as courier-, express- and parcel services. Furthermore the experts predict the developments in air and sea freight from Germany to other European countries, the route to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.