ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Among Transport Market Experts – Moderately Increasing Transport Prices Expected for the Next Six Months

In most segments of the transport market, demand will grow steadily during the next six months. Due to the increasing demand and the improved capacity utilization, companies using transport services should expect moderately increasing transport prices. These are the core findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the third quarter of 2010. Every quarter, ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey around 300 transport market experts on their assessments for the future development of the transport markets and prices during the next six months.

The experts surveyed expect transport demand to increase further. However, growth will not be as dynamic as during the boom years before the economic and financial crisis. Some of the expectations for the individual transport sectors and different relations vary significantly.

The experts are currently most optimistic about the development of air freight and ocean shipping. The development of road freight, combined traffic and CEP services (courier, express, parcels) is also assessed quite favorably. Expectations for the “traditional” rail freight sector have improved, whereas the experts’ evaluation of inland navigation is more reserved.

Regarding the individual transport relations, only slight differences could be observed between the German and the European transport sectors. Clearly, the driving forces are the intercontinental transports, in particular transports in the Asia-Pacific economic region.

The experts surveyed expect price increases for the next six months. Their dynamic will be different for the individual transport sectors and relations. For road freight, air freight and sea freight the expectations of price increases are strongest. However, for the latter sectors, price increases are not expected to be as strong as during the previous quarter. Some of the experts are more and more firmly convinced that prices for rail freight, combined traffic and CEP services will rise. The freight rates for inland navigation are estimated to remain stable by the majority of experts; they only show a slight upward trend. Regarding the different relations, the strongest price rise is expected for the intercontinental air and freight traffic.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-216, E-mail: hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41 61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a quarterlysurvey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to assessthe coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. It comprises the following sections within the national and transnational transport to Western and Eastern Europe: road freight, rail freight, inland navigation, combined transport, and CEP services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and the Asia-Pacific region.