ZEW/ProgTrans Survey among Transport Market Experts - Slight Increase of Transport Prices Expected Despite Lower Freight Volumes in Germany

The tarnished situation of the German economy is affecting the transport markets. The experts of the ProgTrans/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer habe, an any rate, never assessed freight volumes for the six months to come more cautiously since mid-2009.

Compared to the current level, all experts expect stagnating freight volumes or even a downward trend for nearly all sub-markets. Only the courier, express, and package services (CEP) constitute an exception, since the experts forecast a further increasing demand. Despite the curbed expectations on freight volumes, a slight increase of the freight transportation prices seems likely. One reason for this price increase is the introduction of a HGV toll on German freeways in August 2012. Another reason is the still high fuel prices, even though the price situation has recently been eased slightly. These are the results of the ProgTrans/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer of the third quarter of 2012. In this survey, ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, Germany, interview some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry on a quarterly basis about their assessment regarding the development of the transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.

According to the surveyed experts, the transport volumes in the single sub-markets will develop differently during the next six months. While they expect the road freight, the combined traffic, and the air freight to stagnate at the current level, for the domestic and maritime shipping as well as for the rail traffic, a decrease is expected. The CEP services can expect a further increasing demand.

Regarding the transport prices, the experts estimate an increase during the coming six months, which will be perceivable with different intensity in the single sectors. Especially in the CEP services and the air freight, significant price increases are expected. For all other transportation sectors, the trends towards higher prices are less strong. In the road freight, increases are especially expected for domestic traffic, in the air and maritime freight especially for the North America relations.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-216, E-mail hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com