ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Among Transport Market Experts - Stable To Slightly Increasing Prices Expected

In most sectors of German transport, an increase in transport volume and stable to slightly increasing prices are expected for the next six months. Especially the slightly increasing fuel prices and the stable development of transport volume influence the increase in prices. The latter gives transport companies a little scope to increase prices in markets in which there was a lot of competition due to overcapacities. This is the finding of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarkt Barometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the first quarter 2010. ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey about 300 transport market experts to assess the development on the transport markets.

Since late summer 2009, there has been the impression that the transport volume, which had collapsed because of the economic crisis, is developing positively in most German transport sectors. The survey result of the first quarter 2010 confirms this impression. However, the experts’ expectations for the individual transport sectors and the different relations vary considerably.

Experts are rather optimistic about the development of transport volume in road freight, logistics services and combined transport. Experts were more reluctant with their assessment regarding rail cargo and, in particular, domestic shipping. Air freight and ocean shipping are viewed with most optimism. With regard to individual transport connections, domestic long-distance transport and cross-border transport in Western Europe and Intercontinental transport receive good results. Expectations for transport in Eastern Europe were not as good.

Expectations for the price development during the next six months vary considerably in the individual transport sector and relations. Overall there is a tendency towards a slight increase in prices. Increasing prices are mostly expected in air and sea freight. According to the experts’ assessment, there is also a clear tendency towards increasing prices in road freight and combined transport. The tendency towards increasing prices is not as clear in logistics services and rail cargo. Opinions also vary largely on domestic shipping.

For further information please contact

Martin Achtnicht, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-208, E-mail: achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone. +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a trimestrial survey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to assess the coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. It comprises the following sections within the national and transnational transport to Western and Eastern Europe: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.