ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Transport Markets - Growing Freight Volumes Likely to Leave Room for Increase in Transport Prices

The sentiment in the transport sector has improved notably in the second half of 2013. Experts expect slightly increasing freight volumes in the coming six months, which is likely to open room for price increases in freight transport. The experts expect only moderate price increases because fuel costs remain largely stable. These are the results of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transport Market Barometer in the third quarter of 2013. In this survey, ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim interview some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry on a quarterly basis about their assessment regarding the development of transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.

Despite the overall trends for the entire transport sector, the experts’ expectations for individual sub-sectors differ substantially: courier, express and package services (CEP services) certainly are the sector’s "high flyers". CEP services and intercontinental sea freight have the strongest prospects for growing freight volumes. By contrast, the experts expect the weakest growth in freight volumes on a six-month time horizon for the sector’s “problem child” domestic shipping as well as for traditional rail cargo. For road freight transport, combined traffic and international air freight, the experts forecast stable demand.

Expectations about the development of transport prices in the coming six months indicate moderate increases. When it comes to domestic shipping, combined traffic, road freight transport and rail cargo, the majority of experts forecast largely stable prices. In the sub-sectors of CEP services and intercontinental air and sea freight, however, significant increases in prices are expected. What is striking, comparing various sub-sectors and regions, are expectations of significant price increases in road freight with Eastern Europe and in sea freight on the Asia-Pacific route.     

For further information please contact

Dr. Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Telefon +49 621 /1235-208, E-mail achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com