ZEW/ProgTrans Transportmarktbarometer – Despite Slowdown of Economic Growth: Slight Price Increase in the Transport Market Expected Until Mid-2012

The slowdown of the economic growth is still noticeable in the transport markets. The growth of the transport volume both in Germany and for international traffic will significantly decrease in the next six months. The price development will vary between individual transport markets. Altogether, a further, yet decelerated, price increase is expected. These are the findings of the ZEW/ProgTrans Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the fourth quarter of 2011. Every quarter, ProgTrans AG in Basel and Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)in Mannheim survey approx. 250 transport market experts on their assessments for the future development of the transport markets and prices during the next six months.

Although the survey participants generally expect a significant decrease in the transport volume within the next six months, the assessments for the individual transport sectors and the different relations vary. In the transport sectors road freight, courier, express and package services (CEP) as well as combined traffic, the pace of growth will continue to slow. But still a slight increase of growth rates is forecasted. For rail cargo as well as for domestic and ocean shipping, the majority of experts surveyed expect the transport volume to remain stable at current levels. However, the number of experts expecting the transport volume to decrease has grown. In the air freight sector, growth expectations havenormalisedsignificantly after the strong growth boosts. This is also true for transports towards the Asia/Pacific region.

Compared to previous quarters, the price increase in the transport markets forecasted by the transport market experts until mid-2012 is significantly lower. With regard to price development, there are considerable differences between the individual transport markets. The majority of experts expect prices in the sectors of road freight and rail cargo to increase further. For air freight, combined traffic and CEP services relatively stable prices are forecasted compared to the previous quarter. For domestic and ocean shipping expectations regarding price increases have clearly cooled down. The majority of experts now anticipates falling transport prices.    

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-216, E-mail hermeling@zew.de

Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-208, E-mail achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com