ZEW/ProgTrans TransportmarktBarometer – Moderate Outlooks for Growth Rate in Freight Traffic

The catch-up effect visible in freight traffic after the economic and financial crisis continues to decrease in the next six months. The transport volume is still expected to rise, but the intensity varies in the individual transport sectors. Due to the currently high petrol prices, in particular prices in road and air transport will increase. These are the main findings of the ZEW/ProgTrans TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the second quarter of 2011. Every quarter, ProgTrans AG, Basel, together with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey some 300 transport market experts on their assessments for the future development of the transport markets and prices during the next six months.

Since the end of 2010, a decrease of the recovery and growth rate after the economic and financial crisis has been predicted and, by now, is indicated in various statistics. The latest ZEW/ProgTrans findings and their changes compared to the previous quarters also confirm this development. The expectations for the individual transport sectors and relations vary. For road freight, CEP services as well as combined traffic, the growth rate will decline but stay on a relatively high level. For “classic” rail cargo and domestic shipping, a mainly stable or even slightly increasing tendency is expected. For air and sea freight, experts expect the highest growth rate, in particular towards the Asia/Pacific region. With regard to the individual transport relations, the assessment for Eastern European transport - for truck transport also for short distance transport - is somewhat more moderate. Intercontinental transport continues to have the highest growth potential.

The experts’ assessment regarding the development of transport prices during the next six months is considerably more moderate than in the previous quarters. However, there are differences for the individual transport sectors and relations. Increasing prices are mainly expected for road and air transport. For sea freight, on the other hand, the experts consider it likely that the price increase will be considerably curbed. For rail cargo, combined traffic as well as CEP services, the expectations for increasing prices are somewhat more moderate and have also slightly cooled off.  Prices for domestic shipping are expected to increase considerably. Currently, the differences between the relations are not that great.  The experts tend to expect lower price rises for short distance transports.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-216, E-mail hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (ProgTrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com