ZEW/ProgTrans TransportmarktBarometer – Slower Price Rise in Transport Markets Expected

The insecurity due to the future economic and trade development – the major factors of transport demand – does not leave transport markets unaffected. During the next six months, the expected growth of transport volume is much smaller than forecasted last year, especially in the sectors courier, express and package services (CEP) as well as in European and North American sea and air freight. Transport prices will also be affected: On a six months time horizon they will increase only moderately.

These are the findings of the latest ZEW/ProgTrans TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer), a survey among 300 transport market experts on their assessments for the future development of the transport markets and prices during the next six months, conducted by ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, during the first quarter of 2008.

While the experts surveyed revised their expectations for the growth of transport volume in the sectors CEP services and air and sea freight on the North Atlantic and European routes downwards compared with autumn 2007, a significant majority still expect a rise in the transport volume of all road freight submarkets. A high level of growth is also still forecasted for the amount of goods transported to Asia and the Pacific region, yet, the experts surveyed expect growth to be slightly lower. In the sectors rail and combined traffic serious concerns regarding strikes at Deutsche Bahn AG (German National Railway) have been superseded by more optimistic assessments. However, this trend could be reversed easily by new strikes. For domestic shipping the transport volume is expected to remain unchanged during the next six months.

Compared with the previous quarter, the recent assessment of the price development was revised downwards, except for the sector of domestic rail transport. It can be assumed that this stabilising trend is mainly due to the economic slowdown and the overall clarity about the amount of the increase in labour costs in the transport sector. Altogether, the experts surveyed still assume a rise in transport prices during the next six months. This forecast is mainly based on the fact that an upward trend in energy prices is expected. The amount of price increases will differ depending on the individual transport branches and markets. In the sectors of road and rail freight, the expected rise in prices is slightly above the average price rise in the transport markets included in the survey. In the sector of maritime transport the expected price rise in Asia-Pacific transport is significantly higher than on the North Atlantic route.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Andreas Löschel, Phone: +49/621/1235-200, E-mail: loeschel@zew.de