Expectations Rise Sharply, but Overall Outlook Remains Negative

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany experienced a sharp rise in September 2019, making up for the significant decline witnessed in August. Currently standing at minus 22.5 points, the indicator climbed 21.6 points compared to the previous month. The indicator thus exhibits about the same level as in June, which was minus 21.1 points. It remains, however, well below the long-term average of 21.5 points.

In the current September survey, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened by 6.4 points, with the corresponding indicator falling to a current reading of minus 19.9 points. This has been the lowest reading since May 2010.

“The rise of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is by no means an all-clear concerning the development of the German economy in the next six months. The outlook remains negative. However, the rather strong fears that financial experts had in the previous month regarding a further intensification of the trade conflict between the USA and China did not come true. And there is still hope that a no deal Brexit can be avoided. In addition, the European Central Bank is attempting to reduce the economic risks in the eurozone by further easing its monetary policy,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

Financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone has also improved greatly, with the corresponding indicator climbing 21.2 points to a current level of minus 22.4 points compared to the previous month. The indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone deteriorated slightly by 1.1 points to a level of minus 15.6 points.

More information and studies on the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and the release dates 2019 (as PDF file, 28 KB) and the historical time series (as Excel file, 81 KB)