Medium Term Forecasts of Euro Interest Rates

Medium Term Forecasts of Euro Interest Rates

It was the aim of the project to develop forecasting and simulation models for interest rates in the Euro area. The target interest rates are those with 6 months, 2, 5 and 10 years time to maturity. The models analysed are regime-switching models, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models and structural econometric models. The main results are: - forward rates are no good predictors of future interest rates - point forecasts using vectorautoregressive and regime switching models could partly outperform a random walk forecast - vector error correction models are not useful for interest rate forecast because we could not find stable cointegration relationships - regime switching models have been able to produce relatively good forecasts for the direction of interest rate changes, at least for short term forecasts - simulation models can be successfully applied for conditional forecasts of short- and medium-term interest rates.

Project members

Michael Schröder

Michael Schröder

Project Coordinator
Senior Researcher

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Herbert Buscher

Herbert Buscher

Senior Researcher

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Jürgen Kähler

Jürgen Kähler

Research Associate

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Peter Winker

Peter Winker

Research Associate

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Client/Allowance

Contact

Senior Researcher
Dr. Michael Schröder
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