ZEW Lunch Debate in Brussels - Familiar Obstacles and New Approaches in Global Climate Policy
ZEW Lunch Debate in Brussels
How can the 21st Climate Change Conference in Paris become a much-needed success? From the end of November until mid-December 2015, representatives from 195 United Nations (UN) member states will attempt to reach a new global climate agreement in the French capital. Attempts to convert the 1997 Kyoto Protocol into a binding and effective agreement have hitherto failed, which underlines that the Paris delegates will be facing a tough challenge. What criteria have to be fulfilled in order to make the passing of a global climate deal possible? In what way can research findings support policy-makers in this situation? These were the issues addressed by the speakers during the ZEW Lunch Debate "The Road to Paris: Towards a Fair and Effective Climate Agreement?" at the Representation of the State of Baden-Württemberg to the EU in Brussels on November 18, 2015.
About 60 invited guests, including Rüdinger Lüdeking, ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to Belgium, representatives of the European Parliament and the Commission, as well as participants from the spheres of academia, industry and civil society attended the event organised by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). While current research results, innovative approaches to negotiation and new political dynamics have created some moderate optimism regarding the upcoming climate summit, the ZEW Lunch Debate addressed the economic, societal and political aspects of the subject.
In his introduction, ZEW President Professor Clemens Fuest elaborated on the weight of expectation on the Paris summit: "The debate is divided", Fuest said. "There are those who say that it will never work, but also those who say: It is not five minutes to midnight but five minutes past midnight, it must work!" According to Fuest, ZEW takes on a rather optimistic stance, based on the institute's research in environmental economics.
Obstacles and optimism regarding the UN Climate Summit
Dr. Oliver Schenker, acting head of the Research Department "Environmental and Resource Economics, Environmental Management" at ZEW, outlined the fundamental problems facing international climate policy: the fact that countries that contribute nothing to climate protection benefit from the efforts of others, known as the "free rider problem", as well as the unequal distribution of the negative effects related to climate change. To make things worse, measures taken today have only long-term effects, increasing the political costs of climate policy. But some fresh ideas give hope for a positive outcome of the summit: Contrary to the "top down" architecture of the Kyoto Protocol, a "bottom up" approach is supposed to lay the ground for an agreement on realistic emissions targets. According to Schenker, it is up to the industrial nations to drive the negotiations with strong reduction pledges and to pioneer climate-friendly technology. Furthermore, the wealthier nations play a key role in tackling the distributional effects of climate change, Schenker added.
Jos Delbeke, PhD, Director-General of the European Commission's DG for Climate Action, then gave an overview of what the Europeans expect from the 21st Climate Change Conference. "The most important story we can tell to the world in Paris is: The EU has been decoupling its emissions from growth. There is no conflict between bringing down emissions and economic growth." Delbeke pointed out that the EU has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 23 per cent since 1990, while GDP has grown by 46 per cent. Nevertheless, it will be "terribly difficult" to pass a global agreement on the summit. "But let's not forget that the preparatory work has been done", Delbeke concluded.
"Justice only exists in the plural"
The panel discussion chaired by Clemens Fuest was opened by Professor Rudolf Schüßler, tenured professor for philosophy at the University of Bayreuth, who reflected on diverging perceptions of fairness. According to Schüßler, the question of fairness is looked upon from different perspectives. "The perception of an outcome and of the negotiating process are very important to reach a stable agreement," he said. The pledges of participating countries made in the run-up to the negotiations might well be assessed quite differently by other nations. "We should be aware that perceptions of justice are important, and justice only exists in the plural", explained Schüßler. Therefore, negotiating equal increases of pledges might help to prevent gridlock at the Paris summit. This approach would affect all participants in a comparable way without fundamentally dismissing the pledges that participants submitted in consideration of their national interests.
The subsequent debate involving the audience raised further issues: While there is no reasonable doubt that the climate is changing, is there even such a thing as a universal negative impact of climate change? How do we respond to players who might even perceive global warming as a benefit? What is the EU's backlog in terms of coordination and implementation of climate policy? What is the role of adaptation measures in climate summits, should we fail to prevent climate change? These questions certainly emphasized just how much is expected from the UN Climate Change Conference.
The ZEW Lunch Debate series was launched in 2014. It provides a lunchtime platform for experts to discuss current economic challenges facing Europe. Events within this series, which take place in Brussels on a regular basis, provide an opportunity for controversial, open and committed debate.