Gender Bias in the Reelection of Politicians

The paper presented in this ZEW Research Seminar sheds light on a neglected reason for women’s underrepresentation in politics: gender gaps in the reelection of incumbents (in times of crisis) that likely have long-lasting effects on political careers. The authors use hand-collected data on 173,339 candidates in open-list local council elections (1997-2021) in a German state. Their main analysis focuses on the March 2021 election one year into the Covid-19 pandemic and the authors provide evidence for a “gender blame attribution gap” for incumbent councilors. Their DiD regressions rely on exclusive local Covid-19 mortality data capturing the size of the exogenous shock. At an average Covid-19 mortality of one death per 1,000 inhabitants, an increase by one death leads to a 4 vs. 8 ppt lower reelection probability for male and female incumbents, respectively. The authors provide evidence that excludes a number of alternative mechanisms.