China Economic Panel (CEP) by ZEW and Fudan-University - Economic Outlook for China declines slightly

In the current survey (Dec. 16, 2013 to Jan. 2, 2014) the CEP-Indicator of Economic Sentiment for China worsened slightly by 6.4 points reaching a value of 24.4 points. The CEP-Indicator captures the expectations of financial market experts regarding the economic development in China over the course of the next twelve months. Still, more than 67 per cent of the surveyed experts assume economic conditions to improve further.

With respect to China’s current economic situation the experts are less optimistic, too. Compared to last month’s survey the CEP indicator decreased by 9.3 points, reaching a value of 12.5 points.

Considering the upcoming year, analysts expect the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 7.5 percent, down from last month’s 7.6 percent.

While the majority of surveyed analysts expect the economic development in mainland China to worsen within the next twelve months, expectations about Hong Kong have been heightened. For the first time in three months the indicator reflecting Hong Kong’s economic development has improved. It now stands at a level of 29.5 points (up 7.3 points). The expectations about the cities’ real estate prices reflect this trend. While the general outlook remains positive for all cities, the gap between the indicators for mainland China and Hong Kong narrowed. For the next three months the experts expect the stock market to be less dynamic than in the previous survey.

For further information please contact

Dr. Gunnar Lang, Tel.: +49-621-1235-372, Email: lang@zew.de