ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Economic Expectations for the CEE Region Decline Once Again

In February 2014, economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE region) have worsened by 10.9 points. After last month's major drop, the ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region reaches 9.0 points, its lowest level since December 2012.

Among the individual indicators the expectations for Turkey and Croatia also record lowest levels for a long time: The sentiment indicator for Croatia drops by 18.5 points to its lowest level since September 2012; the sentiment indicator for Turkey remains at its previous month level of minus 37.5 points, which is the lowest level since December 2011.

The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts’ expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

The experts' assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region has remained roughly unchanged in February. The respective indicator has dropped slightly by 2.8 points to minus 5.7 points. This comes in spite of a major downswing by 20.0 points of experts' assessment of the current situation in Turkey.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49 621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria.

The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The quarterly ‘Financial Market Report CEE’ contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.