ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): Current Situation and Economic Expectations Improve

In June 2014 the economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE region) reach their highest level since the beginning of this year. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region now stands at a level of 37.1 points after a double-digit increase by 11.1 points. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts’ expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon.

The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007. The experts’ assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region has also improved in double digit in June. The respective indicator has increased by 20.9 points to a level of 14.2 points. This is the highest level of the indicator since November 2013. Improvement of experts’ assessment is also displayed by the respective indicators for the individual countries. The smallest improvement of the current economic situation among the countries in the CEE region is documented for Turkey (increase by 5.6 points). The most positive improvement of the current situation is displayed by the respective indicators for the Czech Republic (increase by 31.4 points) and Romania (increase by 25.9 points).

Information concerning further indicators of the CEE region, the Eurozone, individual CEE countries covered by the analysis, or Austria can be found in the table at the end of the press release. The answers of all survey participants are taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the Eurozone and Turkey. The answers of the Turkish survey participants are not taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for individual CEE countries and Austria, because their high participation share in the survey could cause significant biases in the survey results.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria. The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The quarterly ‘Financial Market Report CEE’ contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.