China Economic Panel (CEP) by ZEW and Fudan University (Shanghai)- Analysts Gain Confidence About China's Growth Prospects

Two weeks prior to the announcement of official growth figures for the second quarter of 2014, financial experts have adjusted business cycle expectations for China upwards according to the new results of the China Economic Panel (CEP), which captures the expectations of financial analysts regarding the economic development in China over the course of the next twelve months. The CEP Indicator gains almost 17 points in the current survey period (June 10 to 30, 2014) reaching a level of 21.4 points. This is equivalent to a five-month high.

The perceptible increase in the CEP Indicator is carried by expectations of rising sales volumes of energy companies and by an increasingly domestic-oriented electronics industry. Business outlooks for the construction sector, which have been assessed critically by the experts recently, also show improvement over the previous month. Nonetheless, the participants keep expecting housing prices in many important Chinese cities to decrease. This could be due to a material number of large construction projects being close to completion within the next twelve months.

The current economic situation in China is assessed positively again. This may reflect the gradual effects of public spending measures labeled as “Micro Stimuli”, which have been announced in April this year. The annualized GDP growth rate for 2014 is projected at 7.4 per cent. This rate slightly falls short of the official public objective of 7.5 per cent.

For further information please contact

Dr. Oliver Lerbs, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-147, E-mail lerbs@zew.de

Prof. Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-140, E-mail schroeder@zew.de