China Economic Panel (CEP) - Financial Experts Keep Forecasting China's Economic Outlook as Robust

International financial analysts' expectations concerning the macroeconomic development in China remain positive according to the new results of the China Economic Panel (CEP). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the assessments of financial experts regarding the business cycle in China over the course of the next twelve months, decreased by 0.3 points in the current survey period (August 26 to September 1, 2014). At its new level of 18.8 points, the index still outmatches the long-term average of 16.0 points. The CEP Indicator is computed using the margin of optimistic and pessimistic assessments among the panel of experts.

The results of the CEP corroborate the view that financial analysts' confidence about the growth prospects of the world's second-largest economy remains untouched although fundamentals for the Chinese economy have been ambiguous recently. While annual GDP growth in the second quarter topped the expectations of various market participants, official data revealed that industry production, bank credit and new construction have been sluggish. Moreover, as expected by the analysts contributing to the CEP, transaction prices and sales volumes of residential real estate in major Chinese cities have fallen recently.

The assessment of the current macroeconomic situation in China improved by 11.1 points over the last month, it is now at a new level of 14.1 points. This still falls short of analysts' evaluations of the macroeconomic outlook.

The CEP is a monthly survey by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and the Fudan University (Shanghai).

For further information please contact

Dr. Oliver Lerbs, Phone: +49 (0)621-1235-147, Email: lerbs@zew.de  

Prof. Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone: +49 (0)621-1235-140, Email: schroeder@zew.de