ZEW/Prognos Survey on Transport Markets - Significant Decrease in Road Freight Prices Expected

The sentiment concerning the development of transport volumes in Germany in the coming six months has worsened. The past six months were characterised by uncertainty about the consequences of the Ukraine crisis, particularly regarding transportation to Eastern Europe. This negative climate has now spread to nearly all transport sectors and traffics. Regarding transport prices, experts expect a heterogeneous development. These are the key findings of the Prognos/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the fourth quarter of 2014. In this quarterly survey, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) survey some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their assessment regarding the development of transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.

Despite the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the sentiment indicator for Eastern Europe decreased only slightly in the current survey. Expectations for transport volumes in nearly all other markets and traffics, however, have deteriorated substantially. Experts have made downward revisions to their recent positive forecasts for combined traffic in Germany and Western Europe, as well as for air freight to and from the Asia-Pacific region, which is in particular strained by the slackening economic development in China. The only sector to resist the negative trend is the CEP services sector (courier, express and parcel services). For a whole year, experts have continuously been optimistic about the development of transport volumes in this sector.

When it comes to transport prices, the surveyed participants have heterogeneous expectations for the individual transport sectors and traffics. Prices for rail freight and combined traffic are expected to grow over the coming six months. This assessment is apparently driven by the significant increase in transport volumes in the first half of 2014. This trend is now followed by the corresponding price effect, even though transport volumes are expected to decline again over the coming months. Fewer experts expect rising prices in air and sea freight than in the previous quarter. The forecasts indicate a moderate decline in prices in this sector. In road freight, experts expect prices to drop significantly. This development can be attributed to low fuel prices and dwindling transport volumes.

For more information please contact

Dr. Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-208 E-mail achtnicht@zew.de

Hans-Paul Kienzler (prognos AG), Phone +41 61 /3273 476 E-mail Hans-Paul.Kienzler@prognos.com

The Prognos/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Prognos AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey some 250 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey has been conducted on a quarterly basis since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the coming six months. The survey examines national and international transport to Western and Eastern Europe with regard to the following transport branches: road freight, rail cargo, inland shipping, combined traffic, courier, express and package services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.