China Economic Panel (CEP) of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and Fudan University (Shanghai) - Outlook for China's Macroeconomy Remains Cautious

Despite slight gains, the macroeconomic outlook for China remains cautious. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the pooled individual expectations of international financial experts with regard to China's business cycle development in the upcoming twelve months, stands at 8.8 points in the current survey period (11 to 26 May 2015). This is a 6.2 point increase compared to the previous month. The indicator's long-term average is 10.9 points. The assessment of the current macroeconomic situation in China has hardly changed compared to the previous month: the respective balance of positive and negative assessments has decreased by 0.3 points to minus 10.6 points.

For the ongoing second quarter, experts continue to gauge the inflation-adjusted year-on-year growth rate of the Chinese GDP at 7.0 per cent. The mean forecasts for the real economic growth rate in the upcoming quarter and for the entire year 2015, however, are declining slightly. Projections for asset prices in China remain positive: the expectations for important stock market indices and housing prices in some major cities continue to be fuelled by low interest rates.

For further information please contact

Dr Oliver Lerbs, Phone +49(0)621/1235-147, E-mail lerbs@zew.de

Prof Dr Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621/1235-140, E-mail schroeder@zew.de