ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Slight Upturn in Economic Expectations

Economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE region) have slightly improved in August 2015. In the current survey, the ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has increased by 3.5 points. The indicator now stands at a level of 19.0 points. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts' expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

Experts' assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region has worsened by 20.1 points in August 2015. Decreasing to a value of minus 4.7, the indicator has entered negative territory. A large majority of the surveyed experts, 85.7 per cent, consider the current economic situation to be "normal".

Information concerning further indicators for the CEE region, the Eurozone, the individual CEE countries covered by the analysis, and Austria can be found in the table at the bottom of the press release. The answers of all survey participants are taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the Eurozone and Turkey. The answers of the Turkish survey participants are not incorporated into the calculation of the indicators for individual CEE countries and Austria, because their high participation share in the survey could cause significant biases in the survey results.

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by ZEW and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria.

The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are surveyed about their assessment of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The quarterly ‘Financial Market Report CEE’ contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de