ZEW Energy Market Barometer - Energy Market Experts Expect Stagnation in Energy Prices in the Short Run

Energy prices in Germany are set to stagnate over the coming six months. On a five-year horizon, however, electricity, oil and gas prices are expected to rise once again. No explicit trend can be observed for medium-term coal prices. These are the central findings of the ZEW Energy Market Barometer, a biannual survey among approximately 200 energy market experts, conducted by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW).

More than two thirds of the surveyed experts predict that the prices for electricity (75 per cent), oil (68 per cent), natural gas (77 per cent), and coal (81 per cent) will remain unchanged over the coming six months. Only a small proportion of participants expect that the prices for these energy sources will either continue to rise or will fall. Such broad agreement between the experts participating in the ZEW Energy Market Barometer has as yet been very rare.

Most respondents expect increases in the prices for electricity (72 per cent), oil (81 per cent), and natural gas (65 per cent) in the next five years. The medium-term trend in coal prices, however, is somewhat different; just below 43 per cent of experts forecast rising or stagnating prices within the coming five years. Around 15 per cent of energy market experts expect coal prices to fall.

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer is a biannual survey conducted among some 200 experts from academia and the energy industry (including energy supply, trading, and service companies). Participants are surveyed in regard to their expectations concerning short- (six-month horizon) and medium-term (five-year horizon) developments in national and international energy markets. The results from the latest survey, carried out in May 2015, are available in the current ZEW Energiemarktbarometer (Energy Market Barometer) (in German only).

For more information please contact

Robert Germeshausen, Phone +49(0)621/1235-218, E-mail germeshausen@zew.de