ZEW and GEM Energy Market Barometers - Paris Climate Summit: French and German Energy Experts Have Low Expectations

The upcoming UN Climate Summit in Paris is unlikely to lead to a legally binding international agreement. Ambitious national climate policy targets in France or Germany, however, would not be watered down if the next climate summit failed. In both countries, a mandatory climate agreement would in particular spur investments in the energy and electrical engineering sectors. These are the key findings of the recent ZEW and GEM Energy Market Barometers, twice-yearly surveys carried out among German and French energy experts.

The next UN Climate Summit will be held in Paris in early December this year. Stakeholders hope it will lead to a break-through in climate negotiations, with developing and developed countries agreeing on a binding global agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol.

According to more than 70 per cent of German experts and more than 60 per cent of French experts, the Paris Climate Summit will not lead to a legally binding international agreement. Yet for both countries, about 80 per cent of experts believe that national climate targets will remain unchanged, even if the Paris Climate Summit fails to produce a binding agreement. “In Germany and France, citizens have very strong preferences towards climate change. National climate policy is therefore rather independent of the outcome of international negotiations,” explains Joachim Schleich, Professor of Energy Economics at Grenoble École de Management (GEM).

About 75 per cent of French energy experts believe a mandatory climate agreement would have a positive or very positive effect on the investment climate in the energy and electrical engineering sectors in France. In comparison, about 50 per cent of German energy experts believe such an agreement would benefit investments in these sectors in Germany. “About one third of German experts are more cautious and consider the effect of a binding agreement on these key sectors to be neutral. In light of recent overcapacities in German electricity generation, as well as in the solar panel industry, this difference between France and Germany comes as no surprise,” states Dr. Nikolas Wölfing, energy economist at the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW).

ZEW and GEM Energy Market Barometers

The ZEW and the GEM Energy Market Barometers are twice-yearly surveys conducted among experts from academia and industry. Participants are surveyed in regard to their expectations concerning short-term (six-month horizon) and medium-term (five-year horizon) developments in national and international energy markets. The results from the latest ZEW Energy Market Barometer for Germany rely on 200 responses in May 2015 and are available in German. The report of the latest GEM Energy Market Barometer is based on 135 responses in early June 2015 and may be downloaded in English and in French.

For further information please contact

Dr. Nikolas Wölfing, Phone +49(0)621/1235- 217, E-mail woelfing@zew.de