China Economic Panel (CEP) by ZEW and Fudan University (Shanghai) - Economic Expectations for China Lose Ground

After a temporary stabilisation in the past three months, macroeconomic expectations for China have suffered yet another setback, according to the results of the China Economic Panel (CEP). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the assessments of international financial analysts regarding China’s macroeconomic outlook over the next twelve months, has deteriorated by 17.1 points in the current survey period (September 15 to September 30, 2014). Now standing at a level of 1.7 points, the index has dropped below its long-term average of 14.9 points. Moving close to the base line, the indicator is signalling that optimistic and pessimistic experts assessments within the sample are now alsmost balanced. The current value is the lowest of the CEP Indicator since the survey began in mid-2013.

In line with the decrease in the lead indicator, growth expectations concerning sales volumes in key economic industries diminished as well, with the only exception of the services sector. Regional economic expectations for the six most important cities of mainland China (Tier-1 cities) and for Hong Kong declined likewise, whereas the survey results indicate a slight stabilization of recently downward-trending real estate price expectations.

The assessment of the current macroeconomic situation in China worsened by 17.5 points compared to the previous month. At a new level of -3.4 points, the respective balance of positive and negative assessments continues to fall short of the macroeconomic outlook.

For further information please contact

Dr. Oliver Lerbs, Phone: +49-621-1235-147, Email: lerbs@zew.de

Prof. Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone: +49-621-1235-140, Email: schroeder@zew.de