China Economic Panel (CEP) of ZEW and Fudan University (Shanghai)- Economic Outlook for China Stagnates

The China Economic Panel Indicator (CEP) has increased slightly by 0.2 points. For the period concerned (08.-30.06.2015), the CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial experts in regard to China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, now totals nine points. The indicator therefore remains below its long-term average value of 10.8 points.

Even action taken at the weekend by China's central bank, which lowered the base interest rate, has not yet led to an increase in the value of the indicator. For the whole of 2015, the international financial experts surveyed expect average growth in China's gross domestic product of 6.8 per cent. For 2016, experts forecast average growth of 6.6 per cent.

Looking at individual sectors, the decrease in expectations is predominate in consumer-orientated sectors such as consumer goods/trade, car manufacture, services and information technology. The decline in the investment banking sector is largely due to the sharp fall in Chinese share prices.

Following this major decline in Chinese share prices, the expectations of financial experts regarding the development of the most significant share indexes are markedly more restrained than they were a month earlier. In particular, experts' sentiment concerning the SSE Composite Index as well as the Growth Enterprise Market Index has weakened significantly.

In the majority of regions, however, real estate prices are expected to show a slight increase. A rise in real estate prices is considered particularly likely to occur in Shenzen. In addition, increases in property prices are expected in Beijing, in Shanghai and in Guangzhou.

For further information please contact

Prof Dr Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621/1235-140, E-mail schroeder@zew.de

Dr Oliver Lerbs, Phone +49(0)621/1235-147, E-mail lerbs@zew.de