Growth Trend of the Chinese Economy Slows Down

The CEP Indicator, which reflects analysts' assessments of the macroeconomic outlook for China for the next twelve months, clearly receded in April 2015. For the current survey period (13th - 25th April, 2015), the indicator has a value of 2.6 points and is thus 11.8 points lower than in March. The increases, which had been achieved over the two previous months, have therefore been re-reduced by half. The April figures considerably undercut the indicator's long-term average of 11.0 points, demonstrating that the indicator’s mid- to long-term downward trend, which has prevailed since autumn 2013, is continuing. One possible reason for the expected slowdown of the Chinese economy is the fact that Chinese exports grew slightly less than expected. Looking at the different regions, the economic downturn is expected to have a particularly large impact on Shanghai.

The forecasts for growth expressed in April's survey also indicate a slight downturn. The analysts surveyed forecast the expected real growth rate of the Chinese GDP for 2015 to reach 7.0 per cent. In the preceding month the forecast was still 7.2 per cent. The outlook has also declined with view to 2016, whereby the Chinese GDP growth rate is now predicted to reach 6.8 per cent.

Evaluation of the current economic situation in China is also more negative. Compared to March, the indicator has decreased by 15.1 points to a current total of minus 10.3 points.

For further information please contact

Prof Dr Michael Schröder, Phone 49 (0)621/1235-140, e-Mail schroeder@zew.de

Dr Oliver Lerbs, Phone 49 (0)621/1235-147, e-Mail lerbs@zew.de