Medium-Term Increases in Energy Prices

Prices for almost all energy sources are expected to increase within the coming five years. This is the case for prices in Germany, as well as for worldwide energy prices. Electricity, crude oil and natural gas seem set to become more expensive. When it comes to coal, however, experts are divided between predictions of price stability and price increases. These are the findings of the latest ZEW Energy Market Barometer, a biannual survey carried out by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) amongst approximately 200 energy market experts.

Around 70 per cent of the surveyed experts expect medium-term increases in the electricity price for large customers in Germany. 72 per cent of survey participants predict rises in global crude oil prices within the next five years. Twelve per cent of experts even expect to see dramatic increases in crude oil prices in the medium-term.

A similar trend can also be seen in the development of natural gas prices in Germany, for which 69 per cent of the energy market experts foresee price increases. Significantly more survey participants expect to see dramatic price increases than was the case six months ago, with the relevant percentage rising from two per cent in the previous survey to a current seven per cent. Expectations for global coal prices remain relatively balanced, with around 40 per cent of experts predicting stagnation in prices and a similar proportion expecting price increases.

The majority of surveyed experts expect electricity prices (72 per cent) and natural gas prices (69 per cent) to stagnate in the coming six months. The prices for crude oil (63 per cent) and coal (73 per cent) are also expected to stagnate.

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer is a biannual survey conducted amongst some 200 experts from academia and the private sector (including energy supply, trading, and service providers). Participants are surveyed in regard to their expectations concerning short- (six-month horizon) and medium-term (five-year horizon) developments in national and international energy markets and prices. A summary of the full results from the latest survey (survey period: May 2016, approximately 180 responses) is published in the German edition of the ZEWnews. Upon request, we are happy to send you this summary in advance. Please submit your request to the ZEW press office.

For more information please contact:

Robert Germeshausen, Phone +49(0)621/1235-218, E-Mail germeshausen@zew.de