ZEW Energy Market Barometer - Energy Supply Security to Improve Again in the Short and Medium Term

In 2015, energy supply in the EU has become more secure again, after 2014 had been characterized by uncertainty due to the Ukraine crisis. This is the result of the current Energy Market Barometer of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). The EMB is a regular survey among energy market experts about their opinion on the current development of energy resources' security of supply.

About two thirds of the experts anticipate a stable development of energy supply security in the EU in the next twelve months. The share of those expecting deterioration has shrunken from 16 per cent to seven per cent when compared to 2014.

Especially the assessments for the supply security of natural gas have become more positive. In 2014, 55 per cent of the experts were still expecting supply security to decrease. Also for 2015, experts had predicted that supply security of natural gas would rather stagnate or deteriorate. The current survey is painting a more positive picture.

About one quarter of the experts see an improvement, 62 per cent estimate the situation to remain unchanged and only seven per cent expect deterioration in the future. Seemingly, worries about gas supply being threatened by crises and the Ukraine conflict have slightly decreased in significance, at least in the short term. In the long run, however, the share of experts forecasting a positive development over a ten-year period has been shrinking steadily since 2012. In the current survey, it has gone down to 23 per cent. The share of negative long term predictions is currently at 39 per cent.

Last year's positive trend regarding the supply security of crude oil has become even more marked. On this issue, only three per cent of experts still predict a negative development, while 41 per cent expect improvement. This estimation is confirmed by low global energy prices. Because of the huge supply, a shortage of mineral oil is not to be expected in the short run. Aside from established mineral oil providers and the continued fracking in North America, easing the sanctions on Iran offers another chance to diversify the supplying countries. On a ten-year period, 45 per cent of respondents nevertheless expect supply security to worsen, while 55 per cent predict a stagnating or positive level.

In the view of the experts, German supply security took a hit in 2011 as a result of the decision to opt for an energy transition. Since then, the expert's outlook has begun to stabilize again. The share of experts predicting a decreasing energy supply security in 2015 accounts for 23 per cent in the current survey. On the contrary, 19 per cent expect a positive development. In the long run, about one quarter of experts are optimistic about energy supply security, while about 40 per cent expect it to worsen in the next ten years.

The expectations for coal supply security remains largely the same as last year. The experts expect the development to be stagnant – also in the long run.

In summary, it can be said that the majority of experts predict a stable energy supply for the EU in the next ten years (62 per cent of answers), while the pessimists (23 per cent) slightly outnumber the optimists (15 per cent).

About the ZEW Energy Market Barometer

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer is a biannual survey conducted among approximately 200 experts from academia and the private sector (including energy supply, trading, and service providers). They are questioned on their expectations in terms of national and international energy markets as well as on energy prices.

For more information please contact

Philipp Massier, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-332, E-mail massier@zew.de