ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Economic Expectations Decline Slightly

In December 2013 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) have slightly decreased. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has lost 4.1 points and now stands at a level of 37.5 points. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts’ expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

The experts’ assessment of the current economic situation in the CEE region has slightly decreased, too. The respective indicator declined by 4.3 points and now stands at a level of 11.9 points.

Expert’s assessments of the respective CEE countries paint different pictures in December. Gaining 15.0 points economic expectations for Hungary show the strongest improvement in this month’s survey. In contrast, economic expectations for Turkey have displayed the largest decrease among all individual countries (down 8.7 points).

For further information please contact

Lena Jaroszek, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-380, E-mail jaroszek@zew.de

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria. The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The quarterly ‘Financial Market Report CEE’ contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.