ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Stable Economic Expectations for the CEE Region

In September 2013 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) remained almost unchanged. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has increased by 2.4 points and now stands at a level of 35.7 points.

Among the individual CEE countries, almost all indicators except those for Romania and Turkey have increased moderately or even strongly. Growing by 31.8 points, the indicator for Hungary showed the highest increase. One reason for the rising optimism for the country may be the decrease in the unemployment rate, which has nearly reached a four-year low, as announced by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office at the end of August. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts’ expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

In this month’s special question the experts sketch out the reasons behind their stable optimism. Most experts point to the economic recovery of the Eurozone and the largest trade partner of the biggest economies in the CEE region, which is Germany. Another prominent reason for optimism is seen in the currently low interest rates in most CEE countries.

The experts’ assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region improved in September. The respective indicator increased by 7.0 points to an almost balanced 0.1 mark.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49  621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria. The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia , Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The quarterly Financial Market Report CEE contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.