ZEW/Prognos Survey on Transport Markets - Largely Stable Price Development Expected Until Year End

Depending on the means of transportation, the development of transport volumes and transport prices vary significantly in the next six months. According to the Transport Market Barometer survey by Prognos/ZEW in May 2015, road freight is expected to have the strongest overall development. The volume forecasts in this sub-sector are almost unanimously positive. Transport volumes for rail freight, by contrast, are expected to decline.

Transport prices are expected to remain largely stable, with the exceptions of air freight, where forecasts indicate a price increase, and sea freight, where a decline in prices has become increasingly likely. These are the key findings of the Prognos/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the second quarter of 2015. In this quarterly survey, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) survey some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their assessment regarding the development of transport volumes and prices on a six-month horizon.

Quite remarkably, the expectations for an increase in transport of goods in road freight also include Eastern Europe. The sentiment indicator has increased considerably for that region for the third consecutive time. The negative effects on transport resulting from the Russia-Ukraine crisis are apparently abating. Growing transport volumes are also expected in the sub-sectors of inland shipping, air freight, as well as courier, express and package services (CEP).

Volumes for conventional rail cargo, in contrast, are clearly trending down again after an interim high in the previous quarter. These negative assessments are quite possibly long-term consequences of the recent strikes in this sub-sector.

The lasting downward trend for European sea transport continues: Long-term expectations have been continually trending downwards since the first quarter of 2014. The pessimistic expectations for volumes in sea transport to North America are possibly reflecting the latest negative assessments of the economic development in the United States.

Price expectations are fairly stable with regard to road freight, conventional and combined road cargo, inland shipping, and CEP markets, while the prices in air freight are likely to increase. These expectations apply for Europe, North America and the Asia/Pacific region. When it comes to sea freight, the situation is reversed, as the share of experts expecting a decline in prices has increased.

For more information please contact

Dr. Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-208 E-mail achtnicht@zew.de

Hans-Paul Kienzler (prognos AG), Phone +41 61/3273 476 E-mail Hans-Paul.Kienzler@prognos.com