ZEW/Prognos Survey on Transport Markets - Moderate Increase in Transport Volumes and Prices Expected

German transport markets are currently in a quite strong shape. The prospects for further growth in transport volumes are good. The increase over the coming half year, however, will be smaller than in the previous months. In most sub-markets of the transport sector, prices will remain stable. There is a growing trend towards rising freight rates, although fuel prices in Germany, which are an important cost factor, are still at a three-year low. These are the findings of the Prognos/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the second quarter of 2014.

In this quarterly survey, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) survey some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their assessment regarding the development of transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.

Despite the general tendency outlined above for the whole transport sector, the expectations of the surveyed experts for the individual transport branches vary notably. The experts expect courier, express and package services (CEP) to record the most significant volume increases. They also forecast general growth for road cargo as well as for air and sea freight, in particular on routes to Asia and the Pacific region. Freight volumes in combined traffic are expected to remain largely stable. On a six-month horizon, the surveyed experts estimate that rail cargo and inland shipping will continue to show the weakest development in transport volumes. But even these two branches of the transport sector are able to maintain stable volume rates.

With regard to conventional road cargo, CEP services, air freight and combined traffic, the experts forecast a moderate increase in freight rates over the coming six months. Significant price increases, in contrast, are expected in intercontinental sea freight. The majority of experts believe that prices in conventional rail cargo and inland shipping will remain stable. The current survey forecasts no decrease in prices in any branch of the transport sector.

For more information please contact

Dr. Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone +49 (0)621 /1235-208, E-mail achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (prognos AG), Phone +41 61 /3273-490, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@prognos.com

The Prognos/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) survey some 250 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey has been conducted on a quarterly basis since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the trend in transport volumes and transport prices for the coming six months. The survey examines national and international transport to Western and Eastern Europe with regard to the following transport branches: road freight, rail cargo, inland shipping, combined traffic; courier, express and package services. The experts also assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.