ZEW/Prognos Survey on Transport Markets: Sentiment deteriorates considerably

The German transport sector will face a decrease in transport volumes as well as stagnating, in some transport branches even declining transport prices in the next six months. This applies especially to land transportation to Eastern Europe, which is particularly affected by the Ukraine crisis. These are the primary findings of the Prognos/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the third quarter of 2014. In this quarterly survey, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim survey some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their assessment regarding the development of transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.

Compared to the previous quarters, the respondents of the current survey are more pessimistic concerning the development of transport volumes in virtually all transport sectors. Solely the international air and sea freight to and from North America is expected to buck the general trend, as experts predict a slight increase in transport volumes.

According to the experts surveyed in the third quarter of 2014, almost all transport sectors will face stable or declining transport prices in the next six months. This is due in part to the expected considerable decline in transport volumes, and in part to the currently low fuel prices in Germany, which are on a level last seen three years ago.  A slight price increase is merely expected in air and sea freight to North America and the Asia/Pacific region, according to the experts. The vast majority expects largely stable prices for courier and express services in the next six months.

For more information please contact

Dr. Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-208 E-mail achtnicht@zew.de

Hans-Paul Kienzler (prognos AG), Telefon +41 61 /3273 476 E-Mail Hans-Paul.Kienzler@prognos.com

The Prognos/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Prognos AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey some 250 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey has been conducted on a quarterly basis since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the coming six months. The survey examines national and international transport to Western and Eastern Europe with regard to the following transport branches: road freight, rail cargo, inland shipping, combined traffic, courier, express and package services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.