ZEW/ProgTrans–Survey Among Experts in the Transport Market - Tough Times Ahead For the German Transport Industry

The German transport market is about to experience tough times. Compared to the previous quarters, the amounts of transported goods are expected to fall in the coming six months for almost all forms of transport, including inland navigation, air and maritime transport as well as transport of goods via road or rail. Only the demand for services in the sector of courier-, express- and parcel services (CEP-services) is assessed as stable. The expectations concerning prices have also changed. They are predicted to fall. On the one hand, the decidedly lower fuel expenses are a reason for this. On the other hand, it is problematic for companies in the transport industry to pass on higher costs to their customers by calculating higher road charges or by increasing the costs for the raising of capital. This is because there is a shortage of demand, which leads to rising competition on the market. This is the result of the latest Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer), a survey on a three month basis among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany. It is conducted by ProgtTans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

The current survey, conducted in February 2009, shows that the expectations regarding the development of the amount of transported goods over the coming six months are predominantly pessimistic about the further developments of business activities and external trade as they are essential factors affecting the demand of transport. Currently, the expectations for the different branches of transport and for the different transport relations are rather consistent: transport in the rail freight sector and internal navigation as well as air and maritime transport are affected the most by the negative economic development. However, the perspectives for road transport are assessed to be similarly weak. In contrast, the expectations for the sector combined transport and particularly for CEP-services are not as pessimistic. Regarding transport relations, the prospects for transports to the Asia/Pacific region are particularly dim.

However, all the participating experts retracted their expectations regarding price developments over the coming six months, as compared to the previous quarter. Furthermore, the expectations concerning the different transport markets and relations were rarely this inconsistent. This is partly due to the fact that fundamental determining factors develop into different directions: fuel expenses are now, after a peak in the summer 2008, decreasing and the stagnating or shrinking demand faces significantly differing competitive environments. The most important tendencies of the price development: rates are expected to remain largely stable in the sectors rail freight and CEP-services, while they are particularly expected to shrink significantly in the sector air and maritime transport. Inland navigation also clearly shows a declining trend. The expectations for the remaining branches of transport differ considerably.

The ZEW/ProgTrans Transport Market Barometer

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a trimestrial survey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to asses the coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. It comprises the following sections within the national and transnational transport to Western and Eastern Europe: road haulage, rail freight services, inland navigation, combined transport as well as courier-, express- and parcel services. Furthermore the experts predict the developments in the air and sea freight sector from Germany to other European countries, the route to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.

For further information please contact

Dr. Georg Bühler (ZEW), E-Mail: buehler@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (ProgTrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com