ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Among Transport Market Experts - German Transport Sector Has Reached Low Point

The German transport sector seems to have reached an economic low point in the second quarter 2010. The transport volume in road freight is going to stabilize in the second half of 2009. However, individual transport sectors have to wait for an improvement of the economic situation. In the transport sector, decreasing prices are expected for the next six months. The outlook for each transport sector, however, varies. In the next six months, rail freight and logistics services are expected to have mostly stable prices, road freight and combined traffic, on the other hand, are expected to have slightly decreasing prices. These are the findings of the ZEW/ProgTrans Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the second quarter 2009. It is conducted by ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, every three months and surveys around 300 transport market experts to assess the development on the transport markets.

In the latest survey in the second quarter 2009, the experts’ assessment regarding the economic outlook in the transport markets has slightly improved. For instance, the experts expect that, in the next six months, the transport volume is going to stabilize, especially for the logistics services. This development is in particular due to consumption in Germany. Almost 50 percent of experts expect stable and 17 percent even slightly increasing demand for logistics services in domestic traffic.

Overall, domestic traffic appears to be the driving power for almost all transport sectors, for example, for the transport volume in road freight. The majority of experts predict a slightly decreasing demand for cross-border road freight. However, 50 percent of experts expect unchanged demand or even slightly increased demand for long-distance road freight in Germany. For short-distance road freight in Germany, even more than 50 percent hold this opinion.

Compared to the previous quarter, the expectations for the transport volume in rail traffic are going to stabilize. However, in particular the Eastern European route is sensitive to changes. Around 37 percent of experts participating in the survey still expect a slightly decreasing and 20 percent expect a considerably decreasing transport volume. The transport volume in air and sea freight has been considerably affected by the economic crisis and its consequences on the world trade. The experts expect, however, that this phase of economic weakness is going to end in the next six months. With regard to sea freight, 20 percent of experts expect an increase in the transport volume for the Asia/Pacific-region.

The experts' assessment regarding the price development indicates that the strong fall in prices is not going to continue. However, the majority of experts still expect slightly decreasing or stable prices. The expectations considerably vary for the individual transport sectors and routes. This is because the main influence variables are developing in different directions. For example, the fuel prices are still decreasing, and, in March 2009, the diesel price was at a low level which was last reached in February 2005. Moreover, due to the decreasing or stable demand, overcapacities are reduced and increases in price in the boom years are revised downwards.

Contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone: +49/621/1235-216, E-mail: hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey 300 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey is being conducted every three months since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the next six months. In domestic and cross-border transport to Eastern and Western Europe, the following transport sectors are surveyed: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.