ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Among Transport Market Experts - Stable Transport Volumes Leave Small Scope for Price Increases

In the coming six months, transport volumes will remain broadly stable in the German transport sector, thereby leaving a relatively small margin for price increases in this period of time. In most transport sectors, prices will rise only slightly or remain on their current level. The only sector that faces significant increases in transport demand and prices is intercontinental air and sea freight. These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the first quarter of 2013. In this survey, ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim interview some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry on a quarterly basis about their assessment regarding the development of transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.

A closer look at the different transport sectors shows that the demand for transport in road freight and combined traffic will not change in the first half of 2013. Regarding conventional rail freight and inland navigation, most experts estimate stagnating or even declining freight volumes. Demand for courier, express and package services (CEP services) as well as intercontinental air and sea freight, however, is increasing. The majority of experts expect rising transport volumes in these markets.

Experts forecast heterogeneous price developments in the sector’s branches over the next six months. Most experts assume unchanged or slightly higher prices for inland navigation, road and rail freight as well as CEP services. The prices of intercontinental air and sea freight, however, are expected to rise considerably. Major shipping companies have already announced an increase of freight rates in recent weeks, particularly for traffic from Asia to Europe.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-216, E-mail hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com