ZEW/Progtrans-Transportmarktbarometer - Freight Transportation Prices Expected to Rise until Mid-2014

The sentiment in the German transport sector shows a further improvement. Freight volumes are expected to rise or at least remain at the same level in almost all transport sectors and traffic relations for the coming six months. An increase of freight transportation prices is therefore expected for all transport markets, however, to a different degree. This is the result of the latest TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer), a survey on a quarterly basis among 250 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany. It is conducted by ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

Despite the general tendency outlined above for the whole transport sector, the expectations of the surveyed experts vary among the individual transport sections. For instance, courier, express and parcel (CEP) services continue to be the shooting stars of the sector concerning freight volumes. According to the surveyed experts, CEP services as well as the remaining sections of road transport are facing the most favourable development in transport volumes. As far as demand is concerned, combined transport as well as sea and air freight in Europe and the North Atlantic are expected to remain stable, whereas rail freight services and parts of the domestic shipping sector continue to be “the problem children”.  According to the experts, those sectors are facing the most unfavourable growth expectations.

The surveyed experts forecast an overall increase in transport prices for almost all sectors in the coming six months. Prices for combined transport and domestic shipping are expected to either remain stable or to rise slightly, while prices for CEP services as well as road transport and rail freight services are expected to increase. By contrast, expectations are relatively moderate concerning price increases for air and sea freight in Europe as well as for transnational transport in domestic shipping.

For further information please contact

Dr. Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone +49 (0) 621/1235-208, E-Mail achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-Mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com