ZEW/ProgTrans TransportmarktBarometer – Slowdown of Economic Growth Starts Affecting Transport Markets

The growth of the transport volume both in Germany and for international traffic will significantly decrease in the next six months. The slowdown of the economic upswing is now being felt in the transport markets. The price increase for transport services will also slow down; road freight and air fright will be least affected. These are the main findings of the ZEW/ProgTrans TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the third quarter of 2011. Every quarter, ProgTrans AG, Basel, together with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey around 250 transport market experts on their assessments for the future development of the transport markets and prices during the next six months.

The experts’ assessments for the individual transport sectors and the different relations vary. In the transport sectors road freight, courier, express and package services (CEP) as well as combined traffic, the transport volume will continue to increase but this increase will be notably slower. For rail cargo and domestic shipping, the experts expect the transport volume to remain largely unchanged up to the first quarter of 2012. In the sectors air and sea freight growth expectations have normalised significantly after the strong growth boosts since 2010. This is also true for transports towards the Asia/Pacific region.

The majority of experts surveyed are convinced that, in the next six months, the price development in the transport markets will proceed much slower than in the previous quarters. Road freight and air freight are the sectors where the experts consider further price increases most likely. This is mainly due to fuel prices, which still remain high, even though a decrease can be noted. For rail cargo, combined traffic, CEP services and sea freight rates, the formerly expected price increase has distinctly slowed down in the meantime. For domestic shipping, the transport market experts do not expect price increases in the next six months. Currently, no significant differences can be noted in the price development of the different relations.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-216, E-mail hermeling@zew.de

Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-208, E-mail achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com