Economic Expectations Continue to Rise

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase of 6.7 points in April 2019, with the corresponding indicator entering positive territory at 3.1 points. Although the indicator still remains below the long-term average of 22.2 points, economic expectations have recovered significantly from its low point in October 2018, having climbed almost 28 points since. Over the same period, however, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany has deteriorated considerably. The corresponding indicator saw yet another decrease in April and currently stands at 5.5 points, 5.6 points lower than in the previous month. The outlook for the German economy in the coming six months thus remains greatly subdued.

“The slight improvement recorded by the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is largely based on the hope that the global economic environment will develop less poorly than previously assumed. The postponement of the Brexit deadline may also have contributed to buoy the economic outlook. By contrast, the latest figures regarding incoming orders and industrial production in the German industry point to a rather weak economic development,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

Financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone has also improved once again, with the corresponding indicator climbing 7.0 points to a current level of 4.5 points compared to the previous month. By contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation in the eurozone saw a further decrease, falling by 6.6 points to a current level of minus 13.2 points compared to March. The economic outlook for the eurozone therefore also remains rather subdued.

More information and studies on the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and the release dates 2019 (as PDF file, 28 KB) and the historical time series (as Excel file, 81 KB)