Information Industry - Mainly Positive Assessment of the Labour Market Situation in the First Quarter of 2012

In the first three months of 2012, the employment situation in the German information industry is mainly positive. Approximately two thirds of the companies active in this economic sector plan to operate with a stable number of employees. 24 per cent plan to hire staff and approximately 10 per cent intend to reduce the number of employees. On balance, subtracting the negative from the positive shares of expectations, 14 per cent of the companies engaged in the information industry plan to increase their manpower. Thus, the positive labour market situation already observed in the fourth quarter of 2011 stabilises. These are the findings of a representative survey conducted in December 2011 by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim in cooperation with Creditreform in Neuss.

Within the entire information industry, mainly the ICT sector plans to increase the workforce in the first quarter of 2012. All in all, 36 per cent of the companies in this sector intend to hire new employees. In contrast, only approximately five per cent assume a reduction of their number of employees. This trend can be observed in the ICT service sector as well as in the hardware sector. One out of two companies active in the hardware and the ICT service sectors already increased their work force in the last quarter of 2011.

The majority of companies in the media industry as well as the knowledge-intensive service providers have already increased the number of employees in the fourth quarter of 2011. They intend to stabilise their workforce on this level in the first quarter of 2012. Furthermore, a balance of approximately four per cent of the knowledge-intensive service providers plan to hire new personnel in the first months of 2012. In the media industry, the share of companies intending to reduce personnel exceeds the share of companies planning to create new jobs by only three per cent.

The labour market situation in the information industry is quite positive. This holds true especially for the ICT sector. Whether this trend will continue throughout the year will depend, among other factors, on the further development of the debt crisis. At the end of 2011, only 21 per cent of the companies assessed that the debt crisis in the eurozone had negative or very negative effects on their economic success. The share of companies with this view, however, rises up to 44 per cent, when assessing their perspective up to mid-2012. Consequently, if the debt crisis continues up to this point, a negative effect on the labour market situation in the information industry cannot be ruled out anymore.

For further information please contact:

Dr. Jörg Ohnemus, Phone +49 621/1235-354, E-mail ohnemus@zew.de

The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the Information Industry

The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the Information Industry is composed of the four components turnover situation, demand situation, turnover expectations and demand expectations (each in comparison with the previous and following quarter, respectively). They are used for the calculations with equal importance. Turnover situation and demand situation form a partial indicator reflecting the business situation. Turnover expectations and demand expectations form a partial indicator reflecting the business expectations. The geometrical mean of the business situation and the business expectations amounts to the value of the Economic Sentiment Indicator of the Information Industry. The sentiment indicator can adopt values between 0 and 100. Values above 50 indicate an improved economic sentiment compared to the previous quarter, values smaller than 50 indicate deterioration compared to the previous quarter.

The economic survey conducted by the ZEW/Creditreform

About 900 businesses participate in the quarterly survey. The economic sector service providers of the information society consists of information and communication technology (ICT) service providers (businesses of the sub-sectors software and IT-services, ICT specialized trade and telecommunication services) and knowledge intensive service providers (businesses of the sub-sectors tax consultancy and accounting, business consultancy, architectural offices, technical consultancy and planning, research and development and advertising).

Overview of the ZEW/Creditreform economy survey (German language only)

Comment on the projection

To ensure the analyses’ representativity, the ZEW projects the answers of the survey participants with the turnover value of the businesses with regard to the entire economic sector service providers of the information society. The phrasing ‘share of the businesses’ therewith reflects the share of turnovers of the businesses.