Fiskalische Effekte von Mindestlohnanhebungen

The present research report estimates the fiscal effects that resulted from increasing the minimum wage to a level of 12 euros per hour in 2022, and the potential fiscal effects from increasing the minimum wage to levels of 12,82 euros, 14 euros, and 15 euros in 2025. The calculations are carried out using the tax-benefit microsimulation model ZEW EviSTA, based on retrospective data for 2018 from the 2019 wave of the Socio-economic Panel (SOEP). The hourly wages that are observed in the SOEP data are uprated to the years 2022 and 2025, respectively, based on data from the Earnings Survey, the index of nominal wage growth, and on an assumption regarding future wage growth. The analysis assumes full-compliance with the minimum wage. Possible adjustments to a higher minimum wage are not taken into account. In particular, the simulations assume that the level of employment remains unchanged.

Hebsaker, Michael and Holger Stichnoth (2024), Fiskalische Effekte von Mindestlohnanhebungen, Forschungsbericht, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA), Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Sozialordnung, Mannheim, Bonn