Football: Where Have All the Spectators Gone?

A current study carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim in collaboration with the Otto Beisheim School of Management (WHU) in Koblenz analyses the reasons for the considerable differences in the number of stadium goers in the German Bundesliga. The findings indicate that decisive factors are the team’s position in the table before a match, the weather, the reputation of the team, its fan base and how the fans are distributed geographically. For example, the current positions in the table have an important influence on the interest in a match. Whether the home team is at the top of the league or bottom placed before the match can mark a difference of up to 8,000 spectators per match under otherwise equal conditions. Furthermore, the weather and the catchment area of the home team are of importance. A temperature difference of 10° C can result in 2,200 stadium goers more/less per match under otherwise equal conditions. Per 100,000 inhabitants within the catchment area, the home team can expect about 800 stadium goers.

The team's reputation and the loyalty of its supporters mainly depend on previous successes, the fan base as well as on how the fans are distributed geographically. The better the table positions in the past, the higher the demand for tickets. For instance, if a team had advanced into the Bundesliga for the first time ever in the second last season and had then won the championship in the last season, this team would sell an average of about 6,100 tickets more at a home match than in case the team had only got tenth place. Besides the team’s reputation the fan clubs also have a significant influence on the demand. Especially when they are distributed over wide areas of the country, they constitute an important factor in terms of demand for their team's away matches. Compared with a home team without any fan clubs, about 1,000 spectators more can be expect per match when they receive a team with more than 100 fan clubs that travel a distance of 100 km each.

The study also revealed that an average of about 9,000 spectators make their way into the stadiums of the German Bundesliga "by coincidence". This fact encourages suspicions that the potential of spectators is still not being exploited to the full. The managements' aims should therefore be directed towards long-term fan loyalty by means of active fan policy and efficient marketing.

Contact

Prof. Dr. Dirk Czanitzki, Phone: +49(0)621/1235-194, E-mail: czarnitzki@zew.de