Economic Expectations for China Slightly Worsen

Expectations for the Chinese business cycle have slightly worsened in the current survey period (23/05/2016 – 07/06/2016). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has dropped by 5.3 points to a current reading of 4.1 points.

For three months, the indicator has been fluctuating within a relatively narrow range around its long-term average of 6.2 points. This means that the surveyed experts expect a similarly strong growth as in recent years. To be precise, the respondents predict an annual GDP growth rate of 6.6 per cent for the current year and 6.4 per cent for 2017.

The principle drivers of economic growth are private consumption and consumer-related services such as information technology and telecommunications, as well as the insurance sector. For the chemicals and automobile industries, growth expectations have improved drastically compared to the April survey. With regard to the individual economic regions, the forecasts for Chongqing, Shenzhen and Shanghai are particularly positive. 

For more information please contact

Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621/1235-368, E-mail: schroeder@zew.de