ZEW/gif Office Market Forecast: The End of the Rally Is in Sight

Germany’s top office markets still register a slight upswing in 2012. For 2013, however, stagnation is expected. Vacancies, top rents and high yields will remain nearly constant. These are the findings of the fifth survey among real estate market experts, which is conducted on a six-month basis by the Society of Property Researchers (gif – Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung) in cooperation with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

The survey focuses on the office market’s core segment. The surveys of the previous years were characterised by cautious optimism. “Even though the forecasts didn’t always hit the bull’s-eye, the tendency was right,” says Felix Schindler from ZEW, who evaluated all surveys. If the research professionals proof to be right again, particularly Berlin’s and Munich’s office markets will show a positive development until the end of the year and will then stagnate in 2013. For Frankfurt, there will likely be no significant rent increases already during this year. For Düsseldorf experts expect that the reduction of vacant office facilities will stagnate.

The greatest yield dynamics is expected for Hamburg this year. For the next year, however, the survey participants also forecast stagnation in rents and yields for Hamburg, as in any other location. The fact that every upswing ends sometime won’t baffle any reasonable spectator. But what surprises even Ullrich Werling, expert from Berlin who helped organising the survey, is the experts’ unanimity. “Instead of the old rule: two experts, three opinions, we are now seeing 16 forecasts with a clear tendency towards the same direction.”

For further information please contact

Society of Property Researchers (gif – Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung), Phone +49 611/23681070, E-mail info@gif-ev.de