ZEW/Prognos Survey: Current End to Falls in Transport Volumes and Prices

Expected developments in German transport markets, in terms of both transport volumes and price developments, now show a clear turnaround since the pessimistic expectations seen in the first quarter of 2016. The sharp decline in transport volumes seems to be over and price expectations have stabilised. Experts even expect to see price rises in air, sea and road freight markets. These are the findings of the Prognos/ZEW Transport Market Barometer (TransportmarktBarometer) for the second quarter of 2016. In this quarterly survey, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) survey approximately 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their expectations for the development of transport volumes and prices on a six-month horizon.

The surveyed experts expect to see constant or rising prices in nearly all markets in the coming six months. A possible explanation for the expected price recovery in the road freight market could be that the commodity market shows first signs of the crude oil price having bottomed out. Furthermore, the continued shortage of drivers may also be reflected in price developments. Whilst price increases are also expected in the air and sea freight markets, there are currently no signs of such positive developments in the rail freight market. 70 per cent of experts expect prices in this market to stagnate.

A similar variation is also seen in regard to the expected development in transport volumes over the coming six months. Experts once again seem optimistic in regard to developments in road freight. Following the ongoing decline in volumes, seen since the last quarter of 2015, the sentiment indicator is now once again improving, particularly for Eastern Europe. The lowest point in expectations therefore seems to have been overcome. It awaits to be seen, however, if experts will continue to hold such cautiously positive expectations in the next Transport Market Barometer survey.

Experts predict a stagnation in transport volumes for inland shipping and rail freight. Estimations in regard to combined traffic are also cautiously optimistic. For courier, express and package (CEP) services, however, experts expect to see slight volume increases in Germany, Western and, once again, also in Eastern Europe. Despite these positive predictions, expectations remain well below the peak levels reached in 2014 and 2015.

After the sentiment indicator for transport volumes in sea freight markets approached a record low in the first quarter of 2016, sentiment amongst experts does now seem to be improving. Approximately 50 per cent of experts now predict favourable developments particularly in North American and Asia-Pacific markets. A similarly positive development is also expected in the air freight market for routes to North America and in the Asia-Pacific region.

For more information please contact

Dr. Martin Kesternich (ZEW), E-mail kesternich@zew.de

Hans-Paul Kienzler (Prognos AG), E-mail Hans-Paul.Kienzler@prognos.com

The Prognos/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) have surveyed some 250 experts from the transport sector on a quarterly basis about the development of transport markets. Experts are asked to predict whether, in the coming six months, transport volumes and transport prices will (strongly/weakly) increase, (strongly/weakly) decrease, or remain the same. The survey examines national and cross-border transport between Germany and Western and Eastern Europe with regard to the following transport sectors: road freight, rail freight, inland shipping, combined traffic, courier, express and package services. Moreover, experts assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia-Pacific region.