Analysis of the heterogeneity of the ZEW Exchange Rate Forecasts
Analysis of the heterogeneity of the ZEW Exchange Rate Forecasts
This project is part of the department’s research activity in the field Expectation Formation in Financial Markets. It addresses the question “How to explain the heterogeneity in the predicting ability of different financial analysts with respect to exchange rate forecasts?” In particular, it focuses on the question of whether successful forecasters of one exchange rate are equally able to predict another, whether the successful forecast of fundamentals (e.g., interest rate differentials) improves the exchange rate forecast and whether relevant professional experience is an advantage for exchange rate forecasts. An empirical investigation of such issues is feasible if based on the ZEW Financial Market Survey data, as personal information about the individual participants is equally available as a multitude of macroeconomic and financial expectations.